YouTube TV vs. Disney: subscribers are canceling and Disney’s ratings are dropping

We are now a full week into the massive blackout of all 21 Disney-owned channels on YouTube TV, and this ugly contract dispute is having a very real, very negative impact on everyone involved. While subscribers are left scrambling to find ways to watch Monday Night Football, new reports (via 9to5 Google) show that both Google and Disney are feeling the pressure from the fallout.

Google faces “manageable” subscriber cancellations

A new survey from Drive Research (via Variety) polled over 1,100 YouTube TV subscribers and painted a grim picture for Google. The survey found:

• 24% of subscribers have either already canceled their service or are considering it.
• 30% have also subscribed to a competing service, like Hulu + Live TV or ESPN Unlimited, just to get the channels back.
• A whopping 82% said they intend to cancel if the Disney channels do not return.

For its part, Google issued a statement calling the subscriber churn “manageable” and explicitly stated that its internal information “does not align with the findings of this survey.” While “manageable” implies a spike in cancellations, Google is clearly pushing back on the idea that it’s facing a mass exodus.

Disney’s live viewership is also taking a clear hit

This isn’t a one-sided fight. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Disney’s live ratings for its flagship channels took a clear dip in the first week of the blackout.

• ESPN’s Monday Night Football saw its viewership drop from its average of over 20 million viewers to around 16.37 million this past week.
• ABC’s Dancing with the Stars also took a hit, with its viewership dropping from 6.74 million to 6.33 million. This was the show’s first drop in viewership in six weeks, breaking a 34-year streak for a broadcast of its type.

To be fair, there are caveats. THR notes that this week’s MNF game (Cardinals vs. Cowboys) “was not especially exciting,” which could account for some of the drop. And Disney noted that the Disney+ stream of Dancing with the Stars was “higher than usual.” Still, the drops are notable and clearly show the impact of losing millions of YouTube TV subscribers.

What’s next?

It remains unclear when, or even if, this feud will be resolved. As of now, subscribers are still in limbo. To make matters worse, Variety points out that the $20 credit Google promised is reportedly a “one-time” measure, not a recurring monthly discount for as long as the channels are missing. It’s a mess we hope gets cleaned up soon. The clear loser here is the general consumer, and I’d doubt either company can continue to alienate viewers too much longer.